The hottest price rises, and the overall developme

The overall momentum of nickel's future development is optimistic with higher prices

in 2014, the Indonesian government's restrictions on nickel ore export quotas strengthened the expectation of supply shortage, and the nickel market, whether in spot or futures, was almost crazy

when the market returned to rationality, it was found that the original export volume of the Philippines could fully make up for the supply gap in Indonesia, so the nickel price returned to the price level before Indonesia's mining ban like a roller coaster

in 2016, the Philippines shut down nickel mines for violating environmental protection regulations, which once again triggered a sharp rise in the global nickel market

it's hard to say whether the future trend is driven by the repetition of history or the continuation of new stories. However, the more "demon" the variety, the more need to have a clear understanding of the fundamentals. After all, the demon market can not escape the constraints of fundamentals

according to the research of Minmetals Economic Research Institute, there will be a gap in nickel ore supply in the future

nickel is an important industrial metal, which is widely used in iron and steel, machinery, construction and chemical industries. In terms of the distribution of nickel resources, the data released by the U.S. Geological Survey in 2015 showed that the global proved basic nickel reserves were about 81million tons, and the total resources were 148million tons. The global nickel ore producing countries are relatively concentrated. According to the latest statistics of the national geological survey of the United States, the global nickel production in 2016 totaled 2.25 million tons, a slight decrease of 1.32% over 2015. Among them, the nickel mine output of the Philippines is 500000 tons, ranking first; Russia, Canada, Australia and New Caledonia ranked second to fifth. The nickel mine output of these five countries accounted for nearly 2/3 of the global output that year. The proved recoverable reserves of nickel in China are only 2.5 million tons, accounting for 3.2% of the global reserves. It is a strategic scarce resource and has a high degree of external dependence. In 2015, China's dependence on nickel was 86%

affected by the ban on the export of high-grade nickel ore in Indonesia, the reduction in the supply of high-grade nickel ore after the damage of high skull tissue, and the shutdown or transfer of most enterprises in the main producing areas of nickel pig iron in China since July 2016, China's nickel pig iron production in 2017 will decline slightly by about 11% compared with 2016. According to the research of Minmetals Economic Research Institute, due to the decline of nickel pig iron production in China, the nickel supply and demand balance in 2017 will still exist in the form of supply gap

in terms of the supply of nickel resources in China, the supply of nickel resources in China is mainly composed of two parts: one part is the supply of primary nickel, accounting for about 72.9% of the overall share of vigorously developing plastic granulator technology using renewable energy, and the other part is from the renewable nickel market, accounting for about 30% of the market share (27.1%). Similar to other metal recycling industries, the development of recycled nickel in China still has problems of imperfect recycling system and low degree of large-scale treatment, which need to be standardized by the state to promote the development of resource recycling industry

in 2016, with the sound development of China's economy, China's steel industry hit the bottom and rebounded, driving the global bulk commodity market to recover upward. According to the calculation of Minmetals Economic Research Institute, in 2017, China's stainless steel production is expected to reach or exceed 25.5 million tons, and the demand for nickel will remain strong, further driving the continued recovery of nickel prices. In addition, due to China's strong investment in the field of new energy vehicles, the strong demand of new energy for power batteries and ternary materials that require us to respond will become another growth point of nickel demand in China and even the world

to sum up, stainless steel is the main downstream consumption area of nickel. Therefore, in the next five years, the nickel price may follow the change curve of the global steel industry and become a slow "bull market" that matches the steel industry. However, due to the stimulation of new energy batteries, the overall momentum of nickel is promising

China's nonferrous metal industry has been widely used in the "Tenth Five Year Plan". It is mentioned in the "third five year plan" that China encourages enterprises to carry out mutually beneficial industrial development and investment cooperation with relevant countries and regions through green space investment, M & A investment, equity investment, etc., and steadily promote the construction of overseas copper, aluminum, nickel, rare and precious metals and other mineral resources production bases