The hottest price trend of China's paperboard prod

In the first half of 2019, China's paperboard production and sales fell, and the price trend was weak

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core tip: the second half of the year is the traditional peak season of papermaking, whether cultural paper or box corrugated paper, demand will rebound to a certain extent. However, the expansion of paper production capacity over the past 18 years has changed the supply side contraction trend since the supply side reform due to excessive accumulation of contradictions, opaque information, and people's panic, which has a great constraint on the improvement of the supply and demand pattern. After experiencing the high profit in the past two years, the investment in fixed assets in the industry has increased significantly since 18 years. According to incomplete statistics, the new production capacity in 19 years exceeded 9.5 million tons, of which the new production capacity of corrugated box board was 8million tons, with the most obvious increase. In the case of sluggish demand, the special production plan proposes that the increase of energy will aggravate the pattern of oversupply and limit the upward movement of paper prices

China is the most important growth market in the global paper industry. In 2018, the production and consumption of paper and paperboard in China ranked first in the world, accounting for about one quarter of the global total. The specific uses of pulp as paper making are as follows: it is an important raw material in the industry, with a high degree of marketization, diverse market players, frequent price fluctuations, and strong demand for risk avoidance by enterprises

in 2018, the total national pulp production was 72.01 million tons, an increase of -9.41% over the previous year. Among them, 11.47 million tons of wood pulp, an increase of 9.24% over the previous year; 54.44 million tons of waste pulp, an increase of -13.61% over the previous year; Non wood pulp 6.1 million tons, an increase of 2.17% over the previous year

China's pulp production in

data source: public data collation

wood pulp production in the middle of the year

data source: public data collation

China's waste pulp production in

data source: public data collation

non wood pulp production in the middle of the year

data source: public data collation

papermaking association's statistics on the 18 year consumption of all kinds of paper, except household paper and special paper, There has been a significant decline in the past 18 years, with the demand for corrugated box board falling by 10% and the demand for coated paper falling by 8%, which is seriously lower than market expectations. In the first half of 19, the output of machine-made paper increased by 0.3% year-on-year in the first five months, achieving a certain recovery in growth

the main reason for the decline in the demand for coated paper is the reduction in the daily business activities of enterprises caused by the macro recession, and the decline in the demand for printed materials such as promotional pages. At the same time, the rise of electronic media has reduced the demand for box board corrugated paper, and the Sino US trade friction has led to a decline in export demand. One third of the terminal demand for box board corrugated paper is related to exports, such as testing methods, machine structure, machine stiffness, platen parallelism The orders of export-oriented enterprises such as measuring components, materials, load sensors, displacement sinking, etc. decreased significantly. The recovery of overall demand depends on the recovery of macro-economy and the alleviation of trade frictions

the output of machine-made paper and paperboard fell for the first time

data source: public data collation

the output of paper products fell sharply

data source: public data collation

while the total consumption of pulp in 2018 was 93.87 million tons, an increase of -6.61% over the previous year. Wood pulp is 33.03 million tons, accounting for 35% of the total pulp consumption, of which imported wood pulp accounts for 23% and domestic wood pulp accounts for 12%; 54.74 million tons of waste pulp, accounting for 58% of the total pulp consumption, of which 16% is made from imported waste paper and 42% is made from domestic waste paper; Non wood pulp is 6.1 million tons, accounting for 7% of the total pulp consumption

total national pulp consumption and year-on-year situation

data source: public data collation

proportion of total national pulp consumption in

data source: public data collation

changes in consumption of various types of paper in 2018

data source: public data collation

II. Boom tracking: demand is weak, Price and ton profit are under periodic pressure

price changes of main paper products and raw materials

price tracking of paper products and raw materials

data source: public information sorting

paper end: paper prices have fallen sharply, and ton profit is under pressure, mainly because the slowdown in economic growth has affected domestic demand. At the same time, white cardboard is affected by the deterioration of the competition pattern, and its paper price and ton profit pressure are greater

waste paper products: since the beginning of 2019, box board paper/corrugated paper has declined by 12%/9%. Box board corrugated paper continued its downward trend during the year. From the perspective of monthly comparison, waste paper products continued their downward trend in June due to the sluggish demand superimposed in the off-season

wood pulp paper products: 1) cultural paper: since the beginning of 2019, the price of coated paper/double offset paper has increased by 6% year-on-year/6%. Driven by several rounds of price increases in the industry, the paper price has gradually risen, and the profits of paper enterprises have been steadily repaired; From the monthly data, the paper price continued a steady upward trend in June. According to the latest paper price, the price of coated paper/double offset paper increased by 3%/2% compared with the previous month; 2) White cardboard: since the beginning of 2019, the price of white cardboard has increased by 6%. According to the latest paper price, the price of white cardboard remained stable in June

raw materials: at the national waste end, the price of waste paper fell in a narrow range, mainly due to weak industry demand; The price of foreign waste and American waste fell sharply, mainly because China's solid waste policy continued to tighten, resulting in a sharp decline in the demand for foreign waste

waste paper: at the external waste end, the price of American waste 11 #/American waste 13 # has fallen sharply by 32%/30% since the beginning of the year, mainly due to the intensification of the excess supply of foreign waste under the background of the sharp tightening of the import quota of waste paper; At the national waste end, the price of national waste has fallen by 6% since the beginning of the year. Among them, the price of waste paper fell by 10% in June alone due to the pressure of superimposed demand in the off-season of the industry

wood pulp: since the beginning of the year, the price of coniferous pulp/broad-leaved pulp has declined by 12%, among which, due to the impact of the high inventory of global wood pulp and the sluggish demand, the price of coniferous pulp/broad-leaved pulp fell by 9%/7% in June alone

third, the second half of the year is the traditional peak season of papermaking. Whether cultural paper or box board corrugated paper, demand will usher in a certain rebound.

the second half of the year is the traditional peak season of papermaking. Whether cultural paper or box board corrugated paper, demand will usher in a certain rebound. However, the expansion of paper production capacity in the past 18 years has changed the supply side contraction trend since the supply side reform, which has a great constraint on the improvement of the supply and demand pattern. After experiencing the high profit in the past two years, the investment in fixed assets in the industry has increased significantly since 18 years. According to incomplete statistics, the new production capacity in 19 years exceeded 9.5 million tons, of which the new production capacity of corrugated box board was 8million tons, with the most obvious increase. In the case of sluggish demand, the increase of production capacity will exacerbate the pattern of oversupply and limit the upward movement of paper prices

investment in fixed assets in papermaking

data source: public data collation

statistics of new papermaking capacity

data source: public data collation