The hottest price rise is expected to rise again,

2022-09-23
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The price rise is expected to rise again, and the papermaking sector broke out in an all-round way

release date: Source: China Securities Journal - China Securities

on March 29, the papermaking sector rose sharply, Wuzhou special paper, Chenming Paper and Tianji stock rose by the limit, and Bohui paper and Yibin Paper increased by more than 5%. On the news side, in March, the order receiving price of white cardboard in many paper-making enterprises exceeded the 10000 mark. At the same time, Bohui paper and other leading paper-making enterprises achieved steady growth in revenue in 2020

industry insiders said that the pulp price rose in March, and the cost side was good, and the price of white cardboard rose; Favorable environmental protection policies and consumption upgrading will bring about an increase in market demand. It is worth noting that the pulp futures price has been at a high level, and the pressure may gradually come in the future

paper enterprises raised prices significantly

in March, the order receiving price of white cardboard of leading paper enterprises and individual paper mills broke through 10000, and Anhui established the technological innovation level of thermoplastic elastomer materials and products industry. According to Longzhong information, an information agency in the energy and chemical industry, the tax inclusive price of 250g-400g mainstream brand white cardboard rose to/ton, with an average price of 9910/ton, up 21.26% month on month and 65.81% year-on-year

Longzhong information said that the leading paper enterprises will continue to increase the order taking price of white cardboard by 500/ton in April. At that time, the order taking price of 250g-400g mainstream brand white cardboard will rise to/ton in April, and it is expected to rise by about 5% month on month and more than 70% year-on-year

in addition to the sharp rise in the price of white cardboard, letters of price increase for special paper have also been sent frequently recently

250% in March is new and customized. On the 6th, Shanying paper issued a price increase letter, saying that due to the sharp rise in wood pulp costs, since April 1, spruce whole wood pulp extensible paper has increased by 500/ton, cedar white extensible paper and Metasequoia natural color extensible paper have increased by 300/ton, and cinnamon coated kraft linerboard has increased by 100/ton

from March 25, the price of Chenming Paper's whole wood pulp and industrial paper series products increased by 700/ton, and the price of non whole wood pulp series products increased by 500/ton; Since April 1, the delivery price of the company's thermal paper series products has increased by 1000/ton

from April 1, all products of silicone paper and grasin of Jianghe paper industry have increased by 500/ton on the basis of the current implementation price, all products of thermal sublimation transfer paper have increased by 2000/ton, and the price of ordinary thermal paper series has increased by 1000/ton

it is understood that special paper manufacturers use different fibers in paper machines to make paper with special functions that are different from the usual tensile testing machines for testing the tensile properties of materials. It is mainly used for printing covers, decorations, handicrafts, boutiques and other purposes

according to the analysis of Huachuang securities, China's special paper industry has grown rapidly and its importance has gradually increased. In 2019, the global special paper market capacity was about 25.03 million tons, and it will reach 28.02 million tons in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.28%. According to the prediction of FMI, by 2027, the CAGR of special paper production in the Asia Pacific region will be 6.7%, with the growth rate ranking first. In 2019, China's special paper output was 3.8 million tons, with a CAGR of 8.66% in 9 years, accounting for 3.53% of China's total paper and paperboard output from 1.94%, accounting for 15.18% of the global special paper market capacity

pulp prices fluctuated at a high level

the rise in pulp prices boosted the rise in paper prices

according to the data of Shanghai Futures Exchange, as of March 29, the price of pulp futures rose slightly, and the main contract 2105 closed at 7014/ton, up 38, or 0.54%

insiders pointed out that pulp futures have been rising for nearly half a year, and have risen sharply since the Spring Festival. At present, the pulp futures price has increased by more than 50% compared with the price of about 4500/ton in November 2020

CITIC futures said that the strength of the supply side is still strong. 1. The fixtures equipped with the experimental machine should be coated with anti rust oil for storage; It will last for a long time, which will bring medium and long-term price support. The demand is relatively tangled. The total consumption of domestic imported wood pulp increased significantly in the first quarter, but the output of core paper was lower than expected. In the second quarter, if the demand for cultural paper recovers and the price rises, the pulp futures price will not rule out hitting a new high. However, with the release of benefits, pulp prices will gradually face pressure

favorable environmental protection policies

in January 2020, the opinions on further strengthening plastic pollution control issued by the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of ecological environment proposed that by the end of 2020, the use of non degradable disposable plastic straws in the catering industry nationwide would be prohibited; Non degradable disposable plastic tableware is forbidden to be used in catering services in built-up areas and scenic spots in cities above the prefecture level

benefiting from environmental protection policies, the 2020 annual report recently handed over by paper enterprises shows that the company's revenue has increased significantly

the 2020 annual performance express of Bohui paper shows that the company achieved an operating revenue of 13.946 billion, an increase of 43.18% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 835 million, an increase of 524.13% year-on-year

Bohui paper said in the announcement that benefiting from the changes of national industrial policies such as the national "opinions on further strengthening plastic pollution control" and "announcement on matters related to the comprehensive prohibition of the import of solid waste", the contradiction between white card supply and demand has become increasingly prominent, which has led to the recovery of the industry prosperity, and the company's product sales and prices have increased steadily in 2020

according to the 2020 annual report of Chenming paper, the company achieved an operating revenue of 30.737 billion in 2020, an increase of 1.12% year-on-year; The total profit and net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company were 2.172 billion and 1.712 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 6.04% and 3.35% respectively

Chenming paper said that in 2020, with the effective control of the domestic epidemic, the recovery of domestic demand, the superposition of favorable policies such as the clearing of foreign waste and the upgrading of plastic restrictions, the prices of paper products such as white cardboard and upstream pulp increased steadily, and the paper industry entered the upward channel

Longzhong information believes that with the promotion of the plastic restriction order to the plastic prohibition order, the market is expected to increase its expectation of replacing plastic with paper, especially in takeout, catering and other industries, which is expected to release 2million-3million tons of replacement demand annually. With the upgrading of domestic consumption, it is expected that the consumption of white cardboard will maintain the same growth rate as the domestic economic development

Huachuang Securities pointed out that the plastic ban is undoubtedly the strongest catalyst behind the sharp rise in white cardboard, and there is a huge demand for white cardboard replacement. It is estimated that if the white cardboard penetration rate of takeout boxes reaches 70% in 2025, the demand for white cardboard will reach 1.45 million tons

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