The hottest price rise is a disgusting yangmou ups

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Price rise is a disgusting Conspiracy: upstream price rise carnival, downstream downtime and other orders

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core tip: [China Packaging News] paper prices are rising again! Recently, the price of base paper and waste paper has risen again. Shanying Paper Co., Ltd., Chenming Paper Co., Ltd., Bohui Paper Co., Ltd. and other major paper enterprises have raised the pressure rate by 1.2mm/min, and the waste paper recycling price has risen again, the same as

[China Packaging News]! Recently, the price of base paper and waste paper has risen again. Shanying Paper Co., Ltd., Chenming Paper Co., Ltd., Bohui Paper Co., Ltd. and other major paper enterprises have raised the recycling price of waste paper one after another, and announced that the price of base paper has been raised across the board, with price increases of 200 yuan/ton

reasons for price increase:

the material cost has increased, that is, the price of waste paper has increased

when the test result shows that the tensile strength of one specimen is lower than the specified index

the profit has declined, and the decline is because the price has been reduced

waste paper has once again become a pot bearer. Everyone knows that the purchase price of waste paper is in the hands of the paper factory. The first step of price increase is naturally to increase the price of waste paper first, Can't make a reality of the rising price of waste paper, why a pretext of the rising price of base paper

the decline in profits is a relative figure, which is relative to the abnormal high profit margin of 17 years. As a traditional industrial manufacturing, the net profit margin of the paper industry has reached 15%, and now the profit margin will rise back. I don't want to earn less

the price rise has nothing to do with supply and demand

the current price rise is not in short supply, but the profit space in the paper market is further reduced due to environmental protection and raw materials, and major paper industries can only raise prices to ensure profits. " In an interview with China business daily, an executive of a listed paper company said that the rise in the price of base paper spread to the downstream paperboard factories, which had weak bargaining power and could only passively raise prices. In the future, paper enterprises may extend their business to downstream cardboard factories and improve the industrial chain to improve profits

1. Price rise has nothing to do with supply and demand, and the rise of cost is a rigid reason. But look at the raw materials in the cost. The paper industry has risen by itself. The environmental protection factor has existed since 17 years, not 19 years

2. The bargaining power of the downstream is weak. The short-term demand for price increase is to continue to achieve high profits, and the long-term demand is to make a layout for extending the industrial chain. In short, it is to grab downstream orders and earn money alone

waste paper is the culprit of price rise.

"a big factor behind this round of price rise is that the rising price of waste paper drives the market price rise, and paper enterprises drive the price of base paper to rise across the board, and more manufacturers will follow suit in succession." The above-mentioned paper enterprise executives told that the rise in domestic waste paper prices originated from the implementation of the policy of prohibiting the import of waste paper at home and abroad

interpretation: waste paper should be completely reduced to the "pawn" of the paper industry. The absurd speech that foreign waste cannot enter and lead to the rise in the price of national waste only wants to pull plateau paper. The reduction of foreign waste is not the real cause of the shortage of raw materials. The core of the relative shortage of raw materials is the decline of demand and the uncontrolled expansion of production capacity

maintaining a high profit level for 17 years is the real purpose of price rise.

recently, major paper enterprises have successively issued performance forecasts, and most enterprises expect their profits to decline in 2018. On February 1, Nine Dragons Paper announced that for the six months ended December 31, 2018, the profit attributable to equity holders of the company is expected to be no less than 2.4 billion yuan, a decrease of about 45% from the same period in 2017, a decrease of 1.95 billion yuan

for the reasons for the decline in profits, Nine Dragons Paper said that it was mainly due to the rise in raw material prices and the decline in product prices. As early as early January 2019, Goldman Sachs Group released a report saying that its view on China's paper industry turned to prudence, and it was expected that the supply and demand of carton paper would deteriorate significantly, and the ratings of Nine Dragons Paper and Liwen paper were downgraded

interpretation: no matter how the upstream paper mills want to push up prices and maintain long-term existence, they can't get around the fundamental problem of the deterioration of demand reduction. If demand does not go up and production capacity cannot be reduced, rising prices will always be a false proposition

unsustainable price rise

"with the continuous release of production capacity, the market situation on the demand side has weakened since October 2018, and the consumption in the domestic market has declined. The price decline caused by the decline in demand can also be divided into 3-point zigzag experimental machine (wd-d3) and 4-point zigzag experimental machine (wd-t)." The above-mentioned paper enterprise executives told that the real economy that drives the packaging paper industry, such as real estate and automobiles, has declined since 2018, and the overall economic situation has been adjusted. The paper industry competition will continue in the first quarter of 2019

interpretation: the decline in demand will inevitably lead to fierce competition in the industry, and it is difficult to maintain continuous price increases under a strong competition of food and clothing.

invisible monopoly under tacit agreement

the executive said that now what paper mills can leave behind has become bigger and stronger, and the market even has a monopoly, resulting in the pricing power of base paper in the hands of a few leading paper enterprises. "The leading paper enterprises will not have a price war. Everyone is already familiar with the fact that the market will only increase the price tacitly to win profits, and there will be no situation of losing both sides due to price competition. The pressure can only be transmitted to the downstream Paperboard Factory. As for how the paperboard factory operates the market, it will not affect the profits of the paper factory.

interpretation: in the future, the prices of the paper factory will be operated synchronously in the long term, and as a secondary factory of the paperboard factory, it is difficult to talk about effective base paper Judgment strategy

upstream tuyere and downstream knife edge

"in fact, the profit of paper enterprises has maintained rapid growth in 2016 and 2017. In 2018, the market demand was weak, the procurement of downstream paperboard factories was reduced, and the increase of raw material costs further compressed the profits of paper mills. In order to maintain profits, paper mills can only raise product prices." The above paper enterprise executives told that next, the major paper enterprises will work hard on cost control. Now many enterprises have entered the upstream raw materials abroad and achieved good results. However, entering the downstream cardboard factory may be the next outlet

interpretation: the core demand of this round of price increases is to maintain the long-term stable existence of high profits under the layout of the whole industrial chain to penetrate the cardboard and carton links

the success of this round of price rise is based on the strong promotion of upstream paper mills, the wave boosting and combustion of we media, the short-term position replenishment started after the year, and the expected rise of the price index under the credit release

on the one hand is the carnival of price rise, and on the other hand is the assembly line of empty workshops, downtime and other orders. Who can fight between price rise and lack of orders may be known soon. If it is difficult to see the real chapter in March, the paper price must be hit back to its original shape in April. The bleak situation since October of 2018 is an empirical evidence

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