The hottest overhaul of Daqin Railway may stimulat

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Daqin Railway overhaul or stimulate the rise of power coal price

Daqin Railway overhaul or stimulate the rise of power coal price

China Construction machinery information

Guide: on the 13th, against the background of the weak market, most of the Research on coal focused on the mechanical performance sector, and some stocks rose in the afternoon, with Meijin energy up 3.19%, SDIC Xinji up 2.6%, Hengyuan coal power up 1.68%, Panjiang shares, Shanmei coal international Datong coal industry also rose slightly. The rise of coal stocks was significantly triggered by

on the 13th, against the backdrop of the weak market, some stocks in the coal sector rose in the afternoon, with Meijin energy up 3.19%, SDIC Xinji up 2.6%, Hengyuan coal power up 1.68%, and Panjiang shares, Shanmei international and Datong coal also rose slightly

there are significant trigger factors for the rise of coal stocks: as the main artery of coal transportation, Daqin Railway will start maintenance on September 20, and factors such as replenishment of inventory may lead to a rise in the price of short-term thermal coal. However, from the perspective of valuation, there is room for the coal sector to move up and down. It is still necessary to select stocks with good growth and choose the time to intervene

power coal prices may rise in the short term

in the context of the upcoming overhaul of the Datong Qinhuangdao railway, the machine test data are more accurate, and the mood for coal stocks is also more optimistic. Most people think that power coal prices will rise seasonally

according to the railway department, the overhaul of Daqin Railway in the second half of the year is planned to be carried out on September 20 for a period of 15 days, with 4 hours of "skylight opening" construction every day. In order to ensure the safety of railway transportation, the Ministry of Railways relaxed the annual traffic volume plan of 450 million tons on the Datong Qinhuangdao railway, and moderately lowered its traffic volume index to about 440 million tons

according to the analysis, the overhaul of Datong Qinhuangdao line implemented in April this year had a power outage of 3 hours a day, which had a certain impact on the current coal shipment; After the overhaul, the efficiency and quantity of coal transportation on the Datong Qinhuangdao railway have been significantly improved. According to the transportation plan formulated at the beginning of the year, the daily transportation volume of Daqin line is 129 on non maintenance construction days 50000 tons; The daily transportation volume of centralized maintenance construction is 1million tons. Based on this, UBS Securities estimates that the annual output value is about 2009 billion yuan. It is estimated that the centralized maintenance in September will reduce the traffic volume of Daqin Railway by about 4.4 million tons in the current period

for the short-term coal price, most institutions are also optimistic. CICC believes that after the peak of coal consumption in summer, the inventory of power plants has declined rapidly, and the power plants and traders have begun to increase the purchase of coal. The sea freight of coal has risen slightly for five consecutive weeks, and the inventory of Qinhuangdao has plummeted; The overhaul of the Datong Qinhuangdao line since September 20 is expected to affect the supply of thermal coal by more than 3million tons. Power plants usually prepare coal in winter in September and October. The price of thermal coal around the Bohai Sea has reversed after nine consecutive weeks of decline. It is expected that the domestic thermal coal price is expected to continue to rebound

According to a research report released in the 13th day, in the short term in the future, the market for thermal coal will rise seasonally, while other types of coal will remain stable. Another company also believes that there is a possibility that the coal price will rise in the off-season in the coming months, because the pit mouth price and sea freight in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia have continued to rise recently, the power plant inventory is also at a 15 day low level, and the thermal coal import volume rebounded sharply in July, indicating that coastal power plants have a strong willingness to replenish inventory. As long as the economy does not have a hard landing, coal prices are expected to rise rather than fall

in the long run, the economic growth rate will decline, and the growth rate of coal demand will also slow down, which is the development trend in the last quarter of this year and the next year. Huachuang Securities believes that until at least 2013, the coal railway transportation capacity is still tight, restricting the release of coal production capacity. The two-way growth of coal supply and demand has slowed down and is in a weak balance

the valuation of the sector can be up and down

from the valuation point of view, the current coal sector is a little embarrassed. During the year, the average p/E ratio of the coal sector was 38 times, with a median of 34 times, but the valuation level gradually moved downward. After 2005, the average p/E ratio of the coal sector was about 22 times, and the median P/E ratio was about 17 times. Putting aside the high valuation level of the 2007 bull market, the recalculated average valuation level of the industry is times

at present, the valuation level of individual stocks in the coal sector is between times, with a median of about 17 times, and there is room for both up and down. Huachuang Securities believes that if external incentives in non performance appear, the valuation will rise. In 2012, the average performance growth of listed companies is expected to be between 15% and 20%, the dynamic P/E ratio of the industry is about 14 times, some companies are lower, and the investment value appears

fund positions are decreasing, which also provides another possibility for the coal sector to be ready. According to the position calculation model of Huachuang securities fund, the position of equity funds has been declining since March 2011. There are two types of fund position adjustment: passive position reduction caused by the decline of the index. The market index has fallen by more than 17% in the past two months, and there are also active positions reduction of equity funds. The positions of equity funds have been on a downward trajectory recently. Market funds are waiting, and coal stocks will undoubtedly become the first choice to increase when the market starts due to the characteristics of resources, stable and predictable performance growth, safe margin of valuation, convenient access, etc

the macro group of CICC expects that the tightening policy will continue in the short term, and the seasonal market of coal stocks will be partially suppressed by macro pressure. However, good earnings certainty is expected to support the sector to continue to outperform the market. It is suggested that a shares can focus on China Shenhua, Yanzhou coal industry, China coal energy, Lu'an Huanneng and Lanhua Kechuang

China Shenhua integration continues to deepen, internal and external expansion accelerates, execution continues to improve, asset injection is expected, and valuation advantages are obvious, corresponding to 2011 P/E ratio of only 12 2 times; After recent adjustment, the valuation advantage of Yanzhou Coal reappears, the medium and long-term growth is guaranteed, and the spot proportion is high. The P/E ratio in 2011 was 14 7 times; In the second half of the year, China coal energy will improve its coal quality, and its output will continue to grow rapidly in the future. Asset injection is worth looking forward to, with a P/E ratio of 13 in 2001 9 times; Lu'an Huanneng asset injection is expected to be gradually put on the agenda, and the medium and long-term output will grow rapidly, with a P/E ratio of 17 in 2011 2 times; Lanhua Kechuang's chemical business has reversed losses and significantly improved its performance. Daning mine has resumed production recently. The P/E ratio in 2011 was 14. The experimental work area has developed a tank and dedicated tank protection evaluation system 5 times

the consensus expectation in the industry is that the new era of resources being king has begun, and coking coal stocks with resource advantages are worth long-term investment. From the perspective of the advantages of mineral resources of listed companies and the future endogenous and epitaxial growth, Shenwan suggested paying attention to Panjiang shares, Jizhong energy, Yongtai energy and Xishan coal power

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