The hottest LLDPE high-level oscillation intensifi

2022-10-21
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LLDPE high-level oscillation intensifies. Pay attention to the trend of crude oil

in the past two weeks, driven by the international crude oil price hitting new highs, Dalian LLDPE futures broke the previous oscillation pattern at one fell swoop, and the futures price rebounded sharply, with a strong trend, rising by about 700 yuan/ton compared with the previous period, with relatively active positions and transactions

in the crude oil market, multiple factors have continuously pushed the oil price to a record high of $120/barrel. In the face of high oil prices, many countries called for increasing production to stabilize prices, but OPEC officials insisted that they had no intention of increasing crude oil production. They believed that the price rise was mostly caused by the market avoiding the risk of dollar depreciation. Data released by the U.S. Commodity Futures Commission showed that as of the week of April 15, large speculators held 66526 net long positions in crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange, an increase of 2.8% over the previous week; Positions were in hand, an increase of 2.1%. The dollar has recently fallen to the bottom and is facing a rebound. If the Federal Reserve does not adjust interest rates in the near future, the rising trend of oil prices may be restrained, but there is not much room for decline. The upcoming peak of summer automotive gasoline consumption in the United States will support the high oil price

the ethylene market price in Asia is strong, and has been rising continuously since April. The reason is that on the one hand, the price of crude oil is rising, on the other hand, the price of naphtha is rising. According to market news, Asian ethylene supply is still tight, but due to the rapid rise in upstream prices, downstream end customers are difficult to pass on costs in a short time. In addition, due to the large number of overhaul devices, it is still difficult to search for spot ethylene shipments based on the countries that FOB will give up part of its profits to maintain market share in the face of competition, and Honeywell announced to increase the production of low global warming potential refrigerants, foaming agents, aerosols and solvents. Iran's cargo cannot reach the Northeast Asian market in a short time. In terms of devices, this week, Yangzi Petrochemical plans to close its 200000 t/a LDPE unit in Nanjing for 10 days of routine maintenance. In addition, the company's 400000 T/a cracking unit was closed for 15 days in mid April. In South Korea, yncc's 857000 T/a No. 1 steam cracking unit will only maintain 95% of the operation in May and June

after entering April, the peak season of agricultural film consumption has passed, and the consumption of LLDPE spot market has continued to be depressed, and the trade volume has shrunk. In order to avoid risks, downstream manufacturers basically do not stock up together with the previously released GB 4806.2 pacifiers, GB 31603 general hygiene specifications for production and GB 31604.1 general rules for migration experiments, and go with them. The final consumption is mainly packaging film and plastic products. According to the experience of previous years, this downturn will continue until September. Due to the rising cost of raw materials, PetroChina and Sinopec have raised the ex factory price of LLDPE one after another, and the price of each model has increased by yuan/ton compared with that before. However, if crude oil turns down in the future, LLDPE will also fall. After all, the market is still in the stage of large supply and demand in recent months. In addition, recently, Dachang exchange revised some terms of the delivery rules of linear low density polyethylene, and canceled the item of "snake skin and silk hair" in the particle appearance index. This will remove the obstacles in the delivery of futures market, and open a convenient door for a large number of spot enterprises to participate in the futures market

in spring this year, the price of agricultural film in all provinces of China showed an obvious upward trend, and the increase was large. The author believes that this structural inflation will continue in the short term. Looking ahead, LLDPE will not have a large market in the short term. The futures price basically oscillates around the range of 14000 yuan/ton, and the enthusiasm of market participation needs to be improved. If the oil price falls, LLDPE will intensify the oscillation and pay close attention to the trend of crude oil

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