The hottest LLDPE lacks demand, and the market ign

2022-10-14
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[LLDPE] lack of demand, market ignoring oil prices, LLDPE warehouse receipts continued to be gloomy

as of the end of this week, China's plastic price index was 915.86 points, down 22.90 points from the same period last week. The China Plastics warehouse receipt index fell to 857.84 points, down 25.93 points from the same period last week

I. upstream review

at the end of last week, although the economic data released by the United States was expected to be good, the dollar rebounded against the euro again, European and American stock markets fell, and the water absorption and permeability of insulation materials moved oil prices lower. On Friday (May 15), the settlement price of West Texas light oil futures in June on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $56.34 a barrel, down $2.28 from the previous trading day. On Monday, two oil and gas pipelines in Nigeria were attacked, and an explosion occurred in the refinery of sunoil company in Pennsylvania, the United States. International oil prices rose strongly. On Tuesday, before the peak season of gasoline demand, accidents occurred frequently after overhaul of U.S. refineries. The mechanical instrument tension measuring device mainly relied on the reaction force in the stretching process. Crude oil and gasoline inventories fell, and New York light crude oil futures exceeded $60 a barrel. U.S. crude oil inventories continued to decline sharply on Wednesday, and New York light crude oil futures rose strongly in recent months, breaking $62/barrel for the first time in six months. Affected by the stock market on Thursday, the international oil price fell sharply, falling below $60 at one time, but rebounded to above $61 at the end of the day

as of the week of May 21, the average closing price of the first month futures of New York light oil excluding graphene was $59.622 per barrel, which was $1.908 higher than the previous week. London Intercontinental Exchange Brent crude oil futures for the first month closed at an average price of $58.778 a barrel, up $1.27 from the previous week

II. The spot market

international crude oil futures rose significantly this week, and WTI closed above $62/barrel for the first time in half a year. In terms of external market, the transaction performance was poor, and the influence of ocean going goods was strengthened. The two major domestic petrochemical groups settled the early supply at a low price and continued to list for sale after settlement. Transactions in the spot market were weak, and the quotation of merchants continued to fall slightly. Traders' mentality is low, and they maintain fast in and fast out

the PE market in East China was depressed this week. Although the crude oil price rose violently, up to $62/barrel, the market lost any sensitivity to this, and even fell on Wednesday and Thursday. The mainstream price of LLDPE fell as low as 9250 yuan/ton. LDPE prices also fell, with the lowest quotation around 9500 yuan/ton. In terms of HDPE, the changes are relatively complex, and the price generally hovers between yuan/ton

the PE market in South China continued to stabilize this week, and from late April this year, the domestic market began a round of decline. All parties generally reflected that the downstream demand was poor and the transaction was difficult. At present, the mainstream quotation of LLDPE market is yuan/ton, while LDPE remains at yuan/ton. In terms of HDPE, the supply of low-voltage membrane materials is relatively small and the price is high. The demand for low-pressure injection molding and wire drawing is poor, and the impact of imported materials is serious, and the price decline is obvious

this week, the PE market in North China is a big bear market. Before, businesses had doubts. Once crude oil breaks through $60/barrel, can the market remain indifferent? Facts have proved that the market does ignore the fact that oil prices continue to decline. Without the support of demand, it is difficult for the market to catch up with the east wind of crude oil. At present, the air atmosphere is relatively thick in the market, and the price drops every day. In recent days, the mainstream price of domestic LLDPE is reported to yuan/ton, the mainstream price of LDPE ordinary high-voltage is reported to yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of HDPE is reported to yuan/ton

III Technical analysis

warehouse receipt varieties

settlement price (which will eventually lead to the slow development of 3D printing industry or the termination of yuan/ton)

total transaction (batch) of LLDPE warehouse receipt

order quantity (batch) of LLDPE warehouse receipt

this weekend

last weekend

rise and fall

this week

last week

increase and decrease

this weekend

last weekend

increase and decrease

ll0906

9198

9356

-158

236

257

-21

178

203

-25

ll0907

9210

9376

-166

the LLDPE warehouse receipt market continued to decline this week, and the entity fell below the medium and short-term average at the end of the period. LLDPE warehouse orders opened higher on Monday, but soon fell sharply. In the early stage, the index showed a slight callback trend, but it went down again. In the afternoon opening, the market developed steadily and there were few transactions. The trend of warehouse receipts drew a horizontal straight line, and closed down slightly in the late afternoon. Warehouse receipts on Tuesday were boosted by oil prices, opening higher and going higher. In the early stage, the index rose and fell, and the market continued to decline. In the afternoon opening, the warehouse receipt fluctuated in a narrow range at 960.5 until the closing. The market fluctuated little and the transaction was poor. On Wednesday, it opened slightly lower, and the early index bottomed back, but the range was not large. After 10 o'clock, the market fell again. In the afternoon opening, the warehouse receipt stabilized, and it was slightly consolidated in the area of 956.5, with a slight decline in the end. LLDPE warehouse orders fell moderately on Thursday, ignoring the sharp rise in crude oil. The early index rose rapidly, and the buyer wanted to promote the market to stop falling and turn up. However, hit by weak demand, the market soon fell again. In the afternoon opening, the market continued to decline slowly, rising powerlessly, and ended down slightly in the late afternoon. On Friday, LLDPE warehouse receipts opened flat and went low. In the early stage, the warehouse receipts bottomed out and rebounded, trying to reverse the market, but the seller successfully blocked in the area of 946.5, and the market fell into a stalemate, and the trend gradually stabilized. In the afternoon opening, the market did not change much. The trend of warehouse receipts drew a horizontal straight line, and ended down slightly in the late afternoon. As of Friday's close, the LLDPE warehouse receipt index closed at 946.18 points, down 19.01 points from the same period last week

According to the daily K-line chart of the index, the K-line entity combination closed 2 positive and 3 negative on this Sunday, and the entity was under pressure on the medium and short-term average at the end of the period. Overall, the market continued to decline sharply. The weekly K-line shows the small negative line of physical closing this week, the KDJ index goes down after the intersection is built, the opening of the BOL line is stable, the price line goes down, and intersects with the China Railway. The market trading was poor this week, and the trading volume and order volume fell slightly

IV. in the future, it is predicted that the demand of downstream users will shrink, and the Qilu Petrochemical and Panjin Ethylene plants will start at full capacity next week. The increase in supply will aggravate the current situation of oversupply. Petrochemical seems to have lost confidence in boosting the market and has been adopting a passive listing strategy. At present, the rising trend of crude oil prices has no effect on boosting, and transactions continue to be depressed. Recently, the warehouse receipt market deviated from the trend of oil prices and fell repeatedly, making it difficult to change its weakness. Traders are pessimistic and do not hold much expectation for the trend in the later period. It is expected that the LLDPE warehouse receipt market may maintain a volatile trend in the future

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